文：NATO     翻譯：Keping Qiu邱可平

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漫威大片《黑寡婦》在北美上映已超一周，但過去的這個(gè)周末，影院端票房?jī)H收獲了2625萬美元，比首周末跌幅67%，目前該片北美票房累計(jì)達(dá)1.32億美元，創(chuàng)MCU最差次周末跌幅。對(duì)此美國電影院業(yè)主協(xié)會(huì)NATO將《黑寡婦》的票房暴跌歸咎于迪士尼選擇在上映同日上線流媒體的策略。

事實(shí)上，由于該片在流媒體平臺(tái)的同時(shí)上線，為影片盜版提供了便利，目前有多個(gè)網(wǎng)址提供了盜版鏈接，有的還是高清版甚至是4K版。作為全美影院業(yè)主的代言人，指出影院票房的極速下跌，完全是零窗口期導(dǎo)致，因此提出影院排片排他性才是前進(jìn)的方向。

“艾維電影”刊發(fā)此文，對(duì)于院網(wǎng)同步發(fā)行希望對(duì)國內(nèi)電影市場(chǎng)有參考和借鑒意義。

核心觀點(diǎn)：院網(wǎng)同步放映削弱了強(qiáng)勁的早期放映票房以及其他所有窗口期的持久表現(xiàn)；影院的放映和同步付費(fèi)點(diǎn)播（PVOD）以及盜版，這三者的自相殘食減少了整體收入。

（洛杉磯 - 2021 年 7 月 18 日）《黑寡婦》憑著出色的影評(píng)、良好的口碑以及火爆的點(diǎn)映和首映當(dāng)天的總收入，分別達(dá)到了1320 萬美元和3950 萬美元。然而，第二天竟然意外下跌 41%，首周票房低于預(yù)期。緊接著第二個(gè)周末票房出現(xiàn)驚人的崩塌。

為什么這樣一部制作精良、廣受歡迎、備受期待的電影表現(xiàn)如此不佳呢？

盡管有人聲稱：這種疫情時(shí)代推出的同步發(fā)行策略，對(duì)迪士尼來說是成功的。但是《黑寡婦》的票房走勢(shì)恰恰證明了排他性的影院發(fā)行意味著能在電影的每個(gè)生命周期內(nèi)為所有利益相關(guān)者帶來更多的收入。

根據(jù)漫威影片以及其他疫情時(shí)期的成功影片，比如 《速9》和《寂靜之地 2 》的首映日與首映周末的比率，《黑寡婦》的開畫應(yīng)該在 9200萬 -1億美元之間。根據(jù)點(diǎn)映收入，與同類影片相比，《黑寡婦》的開盤也可能做到9700萬 美元到 1.3 億美元不等。

早期的分析指出流媒體線上（ Premiere Access） 的收入為 6000 萬美元，并將其與美國國內(nèi)影院票房的 8000 萬美元進(jìn)行比較，由此認(rèn)為《黑寡婦》是成功的，尤其是迪士尼還保留了家庭發(fā)行收入。其實(shí)不然。大約15%的收入來自于各種平臺(tái)，消費(fèi)者是通過這些平臺(tái)訪問Disney+。

然而 Premiere Access 的收入不是新增加的，而是從更為傳統(tǒng)的 PVOD 窗口中拉出來的，而PVOD已經(jīng)不再是一種選項(xiàng)。同步的流媒體收入實(shí)際上攤薄了后續(xù)家庭娛樂收入。Disney+覆蓋了中國大陸以外92%的市場(chǎng)，同步上映后的家庭娛樂方面收入至少折半，這個(gè)賬算下來贏多還是虧多有待進(jìn)一步觀察。

此外，6000 萬美元是全球總額，應(yīng)該與 1.58 億美元的影院放映全球票房總額進(jìn)行比較。

美國每個(gè)家庭的平均人口數(shù)為 2.37 人。人們可以假設(shè)面向家庭的Disney+ 的家庭用戶數(shù)目會(huì)更大。到底多少？Disney+ 訂閱者之間有多少人在共享密碼？結(jié)合損失的影院收入以及被放棄的傳統(tǒng) PVOD 收入，這些問題的答案呼之欲出，在電影的整個(gè)生命周期中，同步發(fā)行會(huì)減少迪士尼從每一位受眾得到的收入。

盜版無疑進(jìn)一步影響了《黑寡婦》的表現(xiàn)，并且將影響影片未來在尚未放映的國際市場(chǎng)上的表現(xiàn)。

嶄新的數(shù)字版在 Disney+ 上發(fā)布后幾分鐘內(nèi)即可獲得。 截至 7 月 12 日， 《黑寡婦》是當(dāng)周被盜版下載得最兇猛的電影。

（https://torrentfreak.com/most-pirated-movies-of-2021/）

它已經(jīng)在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上無數(shù)的非法流媒體網(wǎng)站上泛濫了。

這也是所有同步發(fā)行影片所面臨的情況（《神奇女俠 1984》、《哥斯拉大戰(zhàn)大戰(zhàn)金剛》、《黑白魔女庫伊拉》、《真人快打：毀滅》）。 《速9》 和《寂靜之地 2 》沒有發(fā)生這種情況。捫心問一問，各家因同步發(fā)行所造成的盜版損失了多少錢？

《黑寡婦》令人失望的反常表現(xiàn)，正在迅速地回答因迪士尼發(fā)布有限的首周末流媒體數(shù)據(jù)所引發(fā)的許多問題。最重要的答案是，同步發(fā)行是疫情時(shí)代的產(chǎn)物，應(yīng)該與疫情本身“同歸于盡”，留給歷史。

關(guān)于NATO

NATO （National Association of Theater Owners) 全國影院業(yè)主協(xié)會(huì)是世界上最大的影院放映商貿(mào)易組織，代表美國所有 50 個(gè)州的 35,000 多塊電影銀幕，以及全球 101 個(gè)國家/地區(qū)的 32,000 多塊銀幕。

NATO總部位于華盛頓特區(qū)，在加州洛杉磯設(shè)有第二個(gè)辦事處。NATO幫助影院業(yè)影響聯(lián)邦政策的制定，并與電影發(fā)行商在共同關(guān)心的所有領(lǐng)域合作，從新技術(shù)到立法、營(yíng)銷以及第一修正案問題。www.natoonline.org@NATOCinemas

英文原文：

BLACK WIDOW SHOWS THEATRICAL EXCLUSIVITY IS THE WAY FORWARD

Strong opening and long-term performance in all windows undercut by simultaneous release; cannibalization of theatrical and later PVOD, and piracy reduce overall revenue

(Los Angeles - 18 July 2021) Black Widow’s excellent reviews, positive word of mouth, and strong previews and opening day total ($13.2 million/$39.5 million) led to a surprising 41% second day drop, a weaker than expected opening weekend, and a stunning second weekend collapse in theatrical revenues. Why did such a well-made, well-received, highly anticipated movie underperform?

Despite assertions that this pandemic-era improvised release strategy was a success for Disney and the simultaneous release model, it demonstrates that an exclusive theatrical release means more revenue for all stakeholders in every cycle of the movie’s life.

d on comparable Marvel s, and other successful pandemic-era s like F9 and A Quiet Place 2 opening day to weekend ratios, Black Widow should have opened to anywhere from $92-$100 million. d on preview revenue, compared to the same s, Black Widow could have opened to anywhere from $97 to $130 million.

Early analysis pointed at the $60 million in Premiere Access revenue and compared it to the domestic theatrical of $80 million and declared it a success, especially because Disney keeps every dollar of home release. It does not. Approximately 15% of revenue goes to the various platforms through which consumers access Disney+.

It ignores that Premiere Access revenue is not new-found money, but was pulled forward from a more traditional PVOD window, which is no longer an option.

Further, the $60 million is the global total and should be compared to the $158 million theatrical total.

The average number of people per household in the U.S. is 2.37. One can assume the family-oriented Disney+ household is larger. How much? How much password sharing is there among Disney+ subscribers? Combined with the lost theatrical revenue and forgone traditional PVOD revenue, the answer to these questions will show that simultaneous release costs Disney money in revenue per viewer over the life of the film.

Piracy no doubt further affected Black Widow’s performance, and will affect its future performance in international markets where it has yet to open.

Pristine digital copies became available within minutes of release on Disney+. Black Widow was the most torrented movie for the week ending July 12.（https://torrentfreak.com/most-pirated-movies-of-2021/）

It is also available on myriad illegal streaming sites all over the Internet.

This was also the case for all simultaneous releases (Wonder Woman 1984, Godzilla vs Kong, Cruella, Mortal Kombat). This did not happen for F9 or A Quiet Place 2. How much money did everyone lose to simultaneous release piracy?

The many questions raised by Disney’s limited release of streaming data opening weekend are being rapidly answered by Black Widow’s disappointing and anomalous performance.

The most important answer is that simultaneous release is a pandemic-era artifact that should be left to history with the pandemic itself.

ABOUT NATOThe National Association of Theatre Owners is the largest exhibition trade organization in the world, representing more than 35,000 movie screens in all 50 states, and more than 32,000 additional screens in 101 countries worldwide.

Headquartered in Washington, D.C., with a second office in Los Angeles, California, NATO represents its members in the heart of the nation’s capital as well as the center of the entertainment industry. From these vantage points, NATO helps exhibition influence federal policy-making and work with movie distributors on all areas of mutual concern, from new technologies to legislation, marketing, and First Amendment issues. www.natoonline.org @NATOCinemas